WHAT Am I READING?
Answer: Fiction
The rest of the reasoning is below.
As I was reading headlines today on November 18th, 2024, I couldn’t help but think to myself how insane the last 13 days have been. The political landscape has changed—and continues to change—so dramatically, with Donald Trump planning his upcoming cabinet and every new headline bringing another ranking announcement, jerking attention from one issue to another. The subject of “mass deportation” came up, and I couldn’t help but wonder: What are the probabilities? What could really happen? How would or could states respond if they didn’t agree?
Prior to the election, I had uploaded the Project 2025 document, The Mandate, in PDF format to a generative AI. I used the AI to ask questions about the document, gather information, and fact-check things I had heard before the election. With this existing GPT, I decided to duplicate it and assign it a new task. I wanted it to gather information and provide me with a descriptive scenario, the potential probabilities of such a scenario, whether or not it could really happen, and what it would look like if it did.
The first rendering was dark and concerning. It left me wondering: What else could I do? How else could I continue to analyze the media of the day and perhaps predict upcoming events in a way that I could digest the news and process the possibilities? So, I further customized the GPTs, refined my prompts, and asked the GPT to verify its sources, provide citations, and do my best to monitor the outcome for hallucinations.
That’s not to say hallucinations don’t happen or that they can’t happen—this is, of course, a fictional work.
But I think it’s an eye-opening fictional work, and one worth considering.
Purpose of This Process
This project explores a hypothetical scenario involving mass deportation efforts, federal and state conflicts, and potential constitutional crises. The purpose is to create a detailed, step-by-step analysis of how such events might unfold, using a combination of real-world data, mathematical probabilities, and informed conjecture. By simulating this scenario, we aim to help readers understand the complex dynamics between federal policies, state resistance, public reaction, and legal structures.
What I Was Asked to Do
The process was designed to:
- Monitor and Analyze Current Events:
- Track and integrate verified developments from recent news articles, official statements, and other credible sources.
- Include historical data as context for ongoing trends.
- Build a Realistic Hypothetical Scenario:
- Create a detailed play-by-play timeline showing how events could unfold step-by-step.
- Explore the roles of federal, state, and public actors in response to hypothetical federal deportation policies.
- Calculate Probabilities:
- Use historical patterns, current political dynamics, and logical inference to estimate the likelihood of specific events and outcomes.
- Update Regularly:
- Adjust the scenario daily (or as needed) to reflect new developments, ensuring the analysis remains dynamic and relevant.
- Provide Transparency:
- Clearly cite all sources, distinguishing between current information and historical context.
- Maintain clarity that the scenario is hypothetical and not a prediction.
How the Process Works
- Daily Updates:
- I scan the latest news articles (published within the last month) to identify developments relevant to federal immigration policies, state resistance, public protests, and legal actions.
- Historical data is referenced only for contextual purposes, such as legal precedents or prior events.
- Scenario Building:
- The scenario is organized into distinct phases (e.g., “Federal Announcement,” “State Resistance”). Each phase includes detailed descriptions of potential actions, reactions, and outcomes.
- Probabilities for key outcomes are calculated and adjusted based on verified data and contextual analysis.
- Transparency and Accountability:
- All sources are cited in a code block for easy verification.
- A disclaimer is included to remind readers that this is a fictional exploration based on logical conjecture and not a factual prediction.
Tools and Methods
- Data Gathering: I use verified news articles, historical data, and statements from reputable sources.
- Mathematical Modeling: Probabilities are estimated using trends, patterns, and logical extrapolation.
- Dynamic Updates: The scenario evolves based on new information, with all changes documented transparently.
Why This Matters
By simulating complex, high-stakes scenarios, this process aims to:
- Inform and Educate: Help readers understand the potential consequences of federal and state conflicts.
- Foster Critical Thinking: Encourage readers to explore the interconnected dynamics of governance, public reaction, and legal structures.
- Provide Transparency: Offer a clear, open view of how the scenario is constructed and the sources that inform it.
Reminder
This is a fictional scenario created for analytical purposes. It is based on real data but remains speculative. Readers should approach it as a thought exercise, not a prediction of future events.