Analysis of the Executive Order: “Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations”

This executive order takes a bold approach to combat international cartels and transnational criminal organizations by categorizing them as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) or Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs). It marks a significant escalation in the U.S. government’s efforts to address drug trafficking, organized crime, and border security threats.

This executive order takes a bold approach to combat international cartels and transnational criminal organizations by categorizing them as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) or Specially Designated Global Terrorists (SDGTs). It marks a significant escalation in the U.S. government’s efforts to address drug trafficking, organized crime, and border security threats.

Key Provisions of the Executive Order

1. Purpose

• Broader Definition of Terrorism:
  • Expands the designation of terrorism to include international cartels and transnational gangs such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua.
  • Emphasizes their role as quasi-governmental entities that pose threats akin to insurgent groups.
• National Emergency Declaration:
  • Declares a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), allowing for heightened measures against these organizations.

2. Policy Goals

• Total Elimination of Threats:
  • Directs federal agencies to dismantle cartels’ operational capacities in the U.S. and internationally.
  • Prioritizes removing individuals associated with these organizations under the Alien Enemies Act, highlighting potential extraterritorial operations.

3. Implementation Steps

1. Designation of Organizations:
   • Within 14 days, the Secretary of State, in consultation with other federal departments, will recommend organizations to be designated as FTOs or SDGTs.
2. Operational Preparations:
   • The Attorney General and Secretary of Homeland Security are directed to prepare facilities and operations for removing designated individuals under the Alien Enemies Act.

4. Legal and Policy Frameworks

• Immigration and Nationality Act (INA):
  • Provides the legal basis for FTO designations.
• IEEPA and Executive Order 13224:
  • Supports financial sanctions and asset seizures against designated entities.
• Alien Enemies Act:
  • Grants authority to detain or remove individuals deemed a threat to national security.

Potential Implications

Domestic Impacts

1. Increased Federal Enforcement:
   • Heightened operations by Homeland Security, ICE, and the DOJ against cartels and affiliated individuals.
   • Potential expansion of detention facilities to house individuals removed under the Alien Enemies Act.
2. Civil Liberties Concerns:
   • Designations under the Alien Enemies Act may face scrutiny over potential due process violations.
   • Expanded surveillance and enforcement may disproportionately affect immigrant communities.

International Impacts

1. Mexico and Neighboring Countries:
   • Potential diplomatic strain with Mexico, which may view the designations as a challenge to its sovereignty.
   • Increased cross-border operations could complicate U.S.-Mexico relations, particularly in cooperative areas like trade and border management.
2. Global Networks:
   • Cartels and gangs designated as FTOs may adapt by decentralizing operations or leveraging alternative financial systems.

Humanitarian Concerns

• Migrant populations at the southern border may face increased vulnerability as cartel operations are disrupted.
• Human rights organizations may critique the order for its broad targeting of criminal groups without addressing root causes such as poverty and governance failures in affected regions.

Alignment with Project 2025 and Predictions

1. Immigration and Border Security:
   • Aligns with Project 2025’s emphasis on securing U.S. borders and combating transnational crime.
   • Reflects predicted use of emergency powers to address immigration and border issues.
2. Expanded Executive Authority:
   • Reinforces the administration’s strategy of leveraging federal agencies and legal powers to address domestic and international threats.
   • Mirrors previous predictions regarding the broad use of tools like the Alien Enemies Act.

Scenario Integration: Updated Timeline and Adjustments

Phase 1: Initial Designations (Days 1-30)

• Federal Action:
  • Within two weeks, FTO and SDGT designations are announced for major cartels and transnational gangs, including MS-13 and Tren de Aragua.
  • Asset seizures and financial sanctions are imposed, disrupting cartel operations.
• State-Level Reactions:
  • Border states like Texas applaud the action, while sanctuary states criticize it for potential overreach.
• Public Sentiment:
  • Mixed reactions as proponents frame the order as necessary for national security, while critics highlight civil liberties concerns.

Phase 2: Operational Escalation (Month 2-6)

• Expanded Enforcement:
  • Federal agencies increase raids and arrests of individuals linked to designated organizations.
  • The southern border sees heightened military presence to intercept cartel movements.
• International Response:
  • Mexico formally protests the designation of cartels as FTOs, citing sovereignty concerns.
  • U.S.-Mexico relations face strain as cross-border operations intensify.

Probability Adjustments:

• Diplomatic fallout with Mexico: 80%.
• Increased cartel violence in retaliation: 70%.

Phase 3: Broader Impacts and Backlash (Month 6-12)

1. Cartel Adaptation:
   • Cartels shift operations to less visible networks or decentralize their command structures.
   • Smuggling activities diversify, impacting regional stability in Central America.
2. Domestic Challenges:
   • Civil rights lawsuits challenge the use of the Alien Enemies Act.
   • Advocacy groups raise concerns about targeting immigrant communities under the guise of national security.

Probability Adjustments:

• Legal challenges to the order: 65%.
• Public protests in sanctuary cities: 60%.

Potential Outcomes

1. Outcome A: Effective Disruption of Cartels (40%)
   • Designations and enforcement lead to measurable declines in cartel activities and border crossings.
2. Outcome B: Retaliation and Regional Instability (50%)
   • Cartels respond with escalated violence in Mexico and Central America, straining diplomatic relations.
3. Outcome C: Domestic Legal Pushback (30%)
   • Civil rights lawsuits and political opposition hinder full implementation of the executive order.

The Text of The Order as it appears on whitehouse.gov 01-21-2024

Designating Cartels And Other Organizations As Foreign Terrorist Organizations And Specially Designated Global Terrorists
EXECUTIVE ORDER
January 20, 2025

DESIGNATING CARTELS AND OTHER ORGANIZATIONS AS FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS AND SPECIALLY DESIGNATED GLOBAL TERRORISTS

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1101 et seq., the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA),50 U.S.C. 1701 et seq. it is hereby ordered:

Section 1. Purpose. This order creates a process by which certain international cartels (the Cartels) and other organizations will be designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations, consistent with section 219 of the INA (8 U.S.C. 1189), or Specially Designated Global Terrorists, consistent with IEEPA (50 U.S.C. 1702) and Executive Order 13224 of September 23, 2001 (Blocking Property and Prohibiting Transactions With Persons Who Commit, Threaten to Commit, or Support Terrorism), as amended.

(a) International cartels constitute a national-security threat beyond that posed by traditional organized crime, with activities encompassing:

(i) convergence between themselves and a range of extra-hemispheric actors, from designated foreign-terror organizations to antagonistic foreign governments;

(ii) complex adaptive systems, characteristic of entities engaged in insurgency and asymmetric warfare; and

(iii) infiltration into foreign governments across the Western Hemisphere.

The Cartels have engaged in a campaign of violence and terror throughout the Western Hemisphere that has not only destabilized countries with significant importance for our national interests but also flooded the United States with deadly drugs, violent criminals, and vicious gangs.

The Cartels functionally control, through a campaign of assassination, terror, rape, and brute force nearly all illegal traffic across the southern border of the United States. In certain portions of Mexico, they function as quasi-governmental entities, controlling nearly all aspects of society. The Cartels’ activities threaten the safety of the American people, the security of the United States, and the stability of the international order in the Western Hemisphere. Their activities, proximity to, and incursions into the physical territory of the United States pose an unacceptable national security risk to the United States.

(b) Other transnational organizations, such as Tren de Aragua (TdA) and La Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) pose similar threats to the United States. Their campaigns of violence and terror in the United States and internationally are extraordinarily violent, vicious, and similarly threaten the stability of the international order in the Western Hemisphere.

(c) The Cartels and other transnational organizations, such as TdA and MS-13, operate both within and outside the United States. They present an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States. I hereby declare a national emergency, under IEEPA, to deal with those threats.

Sec. 2. Policy. It is the policy of the United States to ensure the total elimination of these organizations’ presence in the United States and their ability to threaten the territory, safety, and security of the United States through their extraterritorial command-and-control structures, thereby protecting the American people and the territorial integrity of the United States.

Sec. 3. Implementation. (a) Within 14 days of the date of this order, the Secretary of State shall take all appropriate action, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, the Attorney General, the Secretary of Homeland Security, and the Director of National Intelligence, to make a recommendation regarding the designation of any cartel or other organization described in section 1 of this order as a Foreign Terrorist Organization consistent with 8 U.S.C. 1189 and/or a Specially Designated Global Terrorist consistent with 50 U.S.C. 1702 and Executive Order 13224.

(b) Within 14 days of the date of this order, the Attorney General and the Secretary of Homeland Security shall take all appropriate action, in consultation with the Secretary of State, to make operational preparations regarding the implementation of any decision I make to invoke the Alien Enemies Act, 50 U.S.C. 21 et seq., in relation to the existence of any qualifying invasion or predatory incursion against the territory of the United States by a qualifying actor, and to prepare such facilities as necessary to expedite the removal of those who may be designated under this order.

Sec. 4. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:

(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or

(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.

(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.

(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.

THE WHITE HOUSE,

January 20, 2025.

Scenario Integration: “Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations”

President Trump’s recent executive order designating Mexican drug cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) has introduced significant developments affecting U.S. domestic policy, international relations, and border security.

This analysis incorporates the latest news to adjust our scenario accordingly.

Phase 1: Immediate Federal Actions and Responses (Days 1-30)

1. Executive Orders Issued:
   • President Trump signed multiple executive orders declaring illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border a national emergency and designating cartels as FTOs.
     Reuters
   • The orders also target birthright citizenship and suspend the U.S. refugee resettlement program for four months.
2. Deployment of Military Resources:
   • Plans to deploy troops to the U.S.-Mexico border have been announced to enhance border security and counter cartel activities.
     New York Post
3. Mexican Government’s Reaction:
   • Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has rejected the possibility of U.S. military intervention, emphasizing that bilateral relations should be based on cooperation.
     El País

Probability Adjustments:

• Deployment of U.S. troops to the border: 90%
• Formal diplomatic protests from Mexico: 95%
• Suspension of the U.S. refugee resettlement program: 85%

Phase 2: Escalation and Diplomatic Strain (Month 2-6)

1. Increased Border Security Measures:
   • The U.S. military’s Northern Command (NORTHCOM) becomes actively involved in border operations to intercept cartel activities.
     New York Post
2. Diplomatic Tensions:
   • Mexico braces for confrontations over migration, drugs, and trade, with potential imposition of tariffs by the U.S. if issues are not addressed.
     The Times & The Sunday Times
3. Cartel Retaliation:
   • Designated cartels may increase violent activities along the border, targeting both U.S. and Mexican assets in response to heightened U.S. measures.

Probability Adjustments:

• Escalation of cartel violence in border regions: 75%
• Implementation of U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods: 70%
• Deterioration of U.S.-Mexico diplomatic relations: 85%

Phase 3: Legal Challenges and Policy Implications (Month 6-12)

1. Domestic Legal Actions:
   • Civil rights groups and sanctuary states file lawsuits challenging the executive orders, particularly concerning birthright citizenship and refugee resettlement suspension.
2. Policy Debates:
   • The designation of cartels as FTOs sparks debates over the potential for U.S. military action against these groups and the implications for asylum seekers.
     Associated Press
3. Public Opinion:
   • The administration’s actions polarize public opinion, with supporters citing national security and critics expressing concerns over civil liberties and international law.

Probability Adjustments:

• Successful legal injunctions against parts of the executive orders: 60%
• Public protests in major cities opposing the new policies: 65%
• Congressional hearings on the implications of FTO designations: 70%

Potential Outcomes

Outcome A: Strengthened Border Security and Cartel Disruption (40%)

• Enhanced border measures and FTO designations lead to a significant reduction in cartel operations and illegal immigration.
• Improved intelligence sharing and cooperation with Mexican authorities mitigate cartel influence.

Outcome B: Diplomatic and Humanitarian Challenges (50%)

• U.S.-Mexico relations suffer due to perceived violations of sovereignty and unilateral actions.
• Humanitarian concerns arise from increased migrant detentions and asylum restrictions.

Outcome C: Legal and Political Pushback (30%)

• Legal challenges result in the suspension or modification of key aspects of the executive orders.
• Political opposition mobilizes, affecting upcoming elections and policy directions.