Lemonade, Tariffs, and a $5 Trillion Crash: Explaining the Trade War to Kids (and Adults)

1. What Is This Something Called “Trade”

Let’s start simple: countries trade with each other, kind of like how you trade snacks at lunch. Maybe the U.S. trades apples for toys from China, or corn for chocolate from Europe. This back-and-forth is called trade. Everyone sends and receives things they don’t make themselves — like bananas from Central America or computer chips from Taiwan.

But unlike trading snacks with your friends, trade between countries isn’t just about being nice or making fair swaps. It’s built on a giant web of rules, taxes, and deals. These rules are made by governments, enforced by international organizations, and used by huge companies that ship things all around the world. It’s not as easy as saying, “You give me this, I’ll give you that.” It’s more like a complex board game where the rules can change suddenly — and someone always ends up paying more.

One of those rules is something called a tariff. A tariff is a special fee or tax that gets added when things come into the country. But here’s what people sometimes get wrong: the country sending the item doesn’t pay the tariff — the American company that’s importing it does. So if a U.S. store wants to sell sneakers made in Vietnam, they have to pay the U.S. government extra to bring them in, and then they raise the price when you go to buy them at the mall or online.

That’s why changes to tariffs — like the big ones the President just made — can affect everything from what you eat to how much your shoes cost. And when the rules change quickly or unfairly, the whole system can shake — which is what we’re seeing now.

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2. Some Countries Sell Us More Than They Buy From Us

Let’s say you have a lemonade stand in front of your house, and your neighbor has a cookie stand. Every day, you go over and buy a cookie from them — maybe two or three. But they hardly ever come buy your lemonade. They say they don’t like sour drinks, or maybe they just sell more than they spend.

So what happens? You’re buying a lot of cookies, but they’re not buying much lemonade. That means money is going from your stand to theirs, but not the other way around.

That’s called a trade deficit — when one person (or in real life, a country) buys a lot more from someone else than they sell in return. The U.S. does this with a lot of countries. We buy tons of clothes, electronics, food, and tools from them. But they don’t always buy the same amount of stuff from us.

Some people — like the President — think this means we’re losing. But others say, “Well, maybe we just like cookies more than they like lemonade,” and that’s okay as long as the trade is peaceful and fair. Either way, it’s a big deal — because when you spend more than you earn, it can create problems, especially if the rules feel unfair.

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3. The President Thinks That’s Unfair

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4. So He Made a Big Rule: Executive Order 14257

On April 2, 2025, he signed something called Executive Order 14257. That’s like the Principal sending a huge new school rule to every classroom. This rule adds extra fees, called tariffs, to almost everything we buy from other countries.

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5. A Tariff Is Like a Toll on Toys

Imagine you wanted to bring in a toy from another school, but the office said, “Okay, but you have to pay 10 cents at the door.” That’s a tariff — it makes things from outside cost more.

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6. The President Started With a 10% Tariff

The President announced that every country selling things to the U.S. would face a new 10% tariff — meaning companies that bring in toys, clothes, tools, or anything else from other countries would now have to pay 10% more just to get those items into the U.S. That rule started on April 5, 2025. But some countries were hit even harder, with much higher tariffs (like 20%, 30%, or even over 40%), and those kicked in a few days later, on April 9.

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7. But Some Countries Got Hit Way Harder

A few days after the first rule kicked in, things got even tougher. On April 9, the President added extra-high tariffs for specific countries he said were treating the U.S. unfairly. These weren’t just small bumps — some were huge. China was hit with 34%, Vietnam 46%, and the European Union 20%. But here’s the catch: some of these new tariffs don’t even make much sense.

For example, some countries on the list are now paying 10 times more than what they charge us — like if your neighbor charged you one cookie for lemonade, and you charged them the whole pitcher in return. And even stranger, a few places on the tariff list are countries the U.S. doesn’t really import anything from at all — including tiny territories where almost nobody lives except penguins.

And remember: those countries aren’t actually paying the tariffs — American businesses are, and then we do, when prices go up on things like clothes, toys, tools, and groceries. So even if it sounds like we’re punishing other countries, the truth is, we’re kind of punishing ourselves too.

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8. Why Did He Do That?

The President says other countries charge us high tariffs too. He says if they charge 30%, we’ll charge them 30% back — or more. He calls it “Reciprocal Tariffs.” But here’s the truth…

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❌ 9. That’s Not Really How It Works

The President says these tariffs will make trade more “fair.” He says that if other countries charge the U.S. money to sell our stuff over there, then we should charge them just as much to sell their stuff here. Sounds fair on paper, right?

But here’s the thing: that’s not how tariffs actually work in real life.

When people hear “we’re charging China more,” they think China is writing a big check to the U.S. government. But that’s not what’s happening at all. The money doesn’t come from China or Vietnam or Europe. It comes from American companies that import the stuff. And when they have to pay more to get those goods, they raise the prices to make up for it.

So who ends up paying? You do. Your parents do. Every shopper does. Not the foreign country — us.

Let’s say a toy store in Ohio orders a box of action figures made in Vietnam. That box used to cost $100. Now, with a 46% tariff, it costs $146. The toy store doesn’t just eat that loss — they raise the price of every action figure on the shelf. So instead of paying $10, you might pay $15 or even $17 for the same toy.

So while the President says we’re getting tough on other countries, what’s actually happening is we’re taxing ourselves, every time we go to the store. That’s why so many economists, business owners, and even regular families are saying: this isn’t helping — it’s hurting.

The promise sounds simple: punish unfair trading partners and bring jobs back home. But the reality is a lot messier — and a lot more expensive.

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‍ 10. The Numbers Don’t Add Up

When the President introduced these tariffs, he promised they would help American businesses and workers by making trade “fairer.” But now, many people, including some of his own supporters, are worried that things aren’t going as planned.

Republican Leaders Express Concerns

Even members of the President’s own party are speaking up:

• Senator Ted Cruz warned that these tariffs might lead to a “midterm bloodbath,” meaning they could hurt the President’s party in future elections. He explained that tariffs are like a tax on consumers, causing prices of everyday items to go up. ​New York Post

• Senator Ron Johnson expressed panic over the tariffs’ impact on the stock market, indicating that the financial consequences are severe and unexpected. ​The New Republic

Business Leaders Voice Their Worries

People who run big companies are also concerned:

• Bill Ackman, a well-known investor, said that these tariffs could make other countries lose trust in trading with America, which might hurt our economy in the long run. ​

• Howard Marks, another financial expert, mentioned that moving away from trading freely with other countries could lead to America becoming more isolated and less prosperous. ​

What This Means for Everyday People

The idea behind the tariffs was to make other countries pay more to sell their products in the U.S., encouraging people to buy American-made goods instead. But here’s what’s actually happening:

• Higher Prices: Since companies have to pay extra fees (tariffs) to bring products into the U.S., they’re raising prices to make up for it. This means you and your family might have to pay more for things like clothes, toys, and electronics.​

• Market Uncertainty: The stock market, where people invest their money hoping it will grow, has been very unstable because of these tariffs. When the market is unstable, it can affect jobs, savings, and the overall economy. ​

In Simple Terms

Imagine you trade snacks with your friends at lunch. Suddenly, a new rule says you have to give an extra cookie every time you trade for a bag of chips. Your friend might not want to trade anymore, or you might end up with fewer snacks. This is similar to what’s happening with these tariffs—the new rules are making trade harder and more expensive, and many people are worried about the consequences.

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11. Business Owners Felt Misled

When the President announced his new tariffs, some small business owners hoped it would be a smart way to help American companies. But now, some are saying, “This isn’t what we thought it would be.”

Let’s look at a real example: Chatila’s Bakery & Ice Cream, a small bakery in Salem, New Hampshire that makes sugar-free pastries. The bakery depends on ingredients that come from Canada — like cocoa and flour — to make their goods. But after the President announced new tariffs on Canadian goods, the price of those ingredients shot up.

The bakery’s owner, Mohammad Chatila, said that when he came to America, he believed in the American dream — that if you worked hard and ran a good business, you could succeed. “But now,” he said, “you see it in front of your eyes. It’s just melted, like the ice.”

Even worse, most of Chatila’s business comes from retailers in Canada, who used to sell his pastries. But after the tariff news, those Canadian companies canceled their orders. That’s a big deal — those contracts made up 85% of his business. Suddenly, most of his sales were gone, and he had no idea what to expect next. “You have no confidence,” he said. “They have no trust. You’re in limbo. You don’t know what to expect the next hour.”

Senator Jeanne Shaheen visited his bakery and said the tariffs are already causing problems for small businesses like his. “Nobody knows what the impact is going to be,” she said, “and that adds to the undermining of orders and markets.” That means it’s scaring away customers and making it harder for small businesses to survive.

So even though the President says the tariffs will help Americans buy more U.S.-made goods, real people like Mr. Chatila are saying: this is doing more harm than good.

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12. Factories Are Struggling

Factories in the U.S. often rely on parts from other countries to build things. Now, those parts cost more because of the tariffs. That makes it harder to build stuff — and harder to make a profit.

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13. Then the Stock Market Crashed

Right after the tariffs started, people who invest in businesses — called investors — started selling their stocks. Fast. That’s because they were scared that businesses would start losing money.

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14. In Just 2 Days, $5 Trillion Disappeared

Right after the new tariffs were announced, something big — and scary — happened: the U.S. stock market crashed.

In just two days, the market lost more than $5 trillion. That’s not five million, or five billion — it’s five trillion dollars. That number is so big, it’s hard to even imagine. So let’s break it down:

• If you had one million dollars, you could spend $1,000 every day for nearly three years.

• If you had one trillion dollars, you could spend $1,000 a day for over 2.7 million years.

• Now multiply that by five — that’s how much money disappeared in just 48 hours from the U.S. economy.

It’s like if every piggy bank in America — and every savings account, retirement fund, and business wallet — all lost money at the same time. Grown-ups call this kind of event a market crash.

People who invest in companies — called investors — saw the value of their stocks drop super fast. They started selling everything, like people running out of a store during a fire drill. That caused prices to fall even more, and panic spread around the world.

Some experts say this is the worst crash since the Great Depression back in the 1930s — nearly 100 years ago. Back then, the economy collapsed so badly that people lost homes, jobs, and farms. Today, we’re not there yet — but this crash is making a lot of people really nervous.

The big question now is: Can this be stopped before it gets worse? Or will prices keep falling, jobs keep shrinking, and fear keep spreading?

That’s why this $5 trillion crash isn’t just a number. It’s a signal that something in the system is broken — and real people could get hurt if it’s not fixed.

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15. What Did the President Say?

When reporters asked the President what he thought about the stock market crash — you know, the one where $5 trillion disappeared in two days — he said:
“Sometimes you have to take medicine to get better.”

That’s the kind of thing grown-ups say to make something painful sound like it’s for your own good. Like when your parents say,
“This is going to hurt me more than it hurts you.”
Except — let’s be honest — it’s not really true. It’s something adults say to cover their guilt, not to explain what’s actually happening.

And in this case, it felt even worse. Because the President is extremely wealthy — he’s a billionaire, and many of the people in his inner circle are also billionaires. When the stock market crashes, regular people can lose their retirement savings, their jobs, or their homes. But wealthy people often have special ways to protect their money, or even make money when the market drops.

So when a rich President says “this is medicine,” to people who are barely hanging on, it doesn’t sound wise or helpful — it sounds cold.

Some people say it reminds them of something a French queen supposedly said hundreds of years ago during a food shortage. When told that the poor had no bread, she reportedly said:
“Let them eat cake.”

In other words: she didn’t get it. She was living in a palace while her people were starving in the streets. And that’s how this is starting to feel for a lot of Americans today — like the people in charge aren’t feeling the pain they’re causing, and don’t understand what it’s like to be a middle-class or working-class family trying to survive.

So when the President calls this crash “medicine,” a lot of people aren’t buying it. To them, it feels more like they’ve been left behind — while the people at the top are still living large, and telling them to just be patient as things get worse.

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16. But The Pain Is Really Real

It’s not just stock prices. Companies are laying people off. Groceries are getting more expensive. Even gas, toys, clothes, and fruit are going up in price — fast.

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17. What Does This Mean for You?

You might be thinking, “Okay, this is all about businesses and stock markets and big numbers — but what does it mean for me?”

Well, let’s start at home.

If your parents or caregivers are the ones buying groceries, they’ve probably noticed that prices are going up. Things like cereal, fruit, snacks, juice, and even toothpaste might cost more than they did last month. That’s because a lot of those items — or the ingredients that go into them — are imported from other countries. And with tariffs, they cost more to bring into the U.S., so stores raise the price.

So what might that mean in your house?

• Maybe you get fewer treats in your lunchbox.

• Maybe your family goes out to eat less often or not at all.

• Maybe your summer vacation gets canceled, or your birthday party is a little smaller this year.

• Maybe one of your parents has to work extra hours, or they seem more stressed about money.

• It can also mean your parents might be more grumpy.

But it’s not just about your home — it can also affect your school.

If the economy keeps getting worse, and families are spending less, the government may start cutting back on things too. That could mean:

• Your school might have fewer supplies, like books or computers.

• Field trips might get canceled.

• Some teachers or staff might not come back next year if the district has to save money.

• After-school programs or sports could lose funding.

Even in your neighborhood, things might feel different:

• That small bakery or toy shop down the street might close if they can’t afford to keep up with rising costs.

• Your friend’s parent might lose their job, or have to move to a new city for work.

• Community centers or libraries might shorten their hours or stop offering free programs.

All of this is connected. It might start with a tariff, but that little fee at the border can ripple all the way down to your snack shelf, your school day, and your weekends. That’s why this isn’t just about business — it’s about families, kids, and what everyday life looks like when the economy gets shaky.

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19. This Is Called a Trade War

A trade war is when countries keep hitting each other with more and more tariffs. Nobody really wins — everyone just pays more. It’s like two kids arguing and breaking each other’s toys.

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20. Farmers Are Already Hurting

Some American farmers can’t sell their crops to other countries anymore. That’s because the buyers don’t want to pay the new higher prices caused by the tariffs. Some farms might even close.

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21. What About Online Shopping?

Stores like Amazon and Walmart get a lot of stuff from other countries. If their costs go up, guess what? So do the prices on your clothes, gadgets, toys — everything.

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️ 22. Congress Wasn’t Involved

This huge decision didn’t come from a vote in Congress. The President used something called emergency powers to do this. Some people say that’s not fair or democratic.

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23. Is This What the Law Was Meant For?

The President used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act — a law meant for things like war or cyber attacks. Using it for regular trade might not be legal, and some people might sue.

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24. What Are Other Leaders Saying?

Leaders in Europe, Asia, and even Canada say these tariffs are unfair and dangerous. They’re warning it could crash the world economy. Even American companies are begging for relief.

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25. This Is Happening Fast

Usually, big economic changes happen slowly. This one happened in just a few days. That’s why people are panicking — it’s like trying to stop a roller coaster after it already dropped.

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26. But Didn’t the President Promise Jobs?

Yes — he said it would bring jobs back to America. But right now, more people are losing jobs than gaining them. It’s not going the way he promised.

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27. Even the Federal Reserve Is Nervous

That’s the group that sets interest rates and tries to keep the economy steady. They’re now talking about cutting rates — like putting ice on a burn — because they think the economy is in trouble.

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️ 28. The News Is Not Good

If you’ve been hearing grown-ups talk more about the economy, or if the news has been on more than usual at your house, you’re not alone. All across the country — from the tall buildings of Wall Street in New York City to small towns and farms on Main Street — people are starting to say the same thing:
“This might have gone too far.”

Everywhere you look, headlines are using scary words:

• “Markets Crash”

• “Businesses Cut Jobs”

• “Farmers in Trouble”

• “Consumers Feeling the Pinch”

Even if you don’t fully understand what all those words mean yet, you can feel it in the way people around you are acting. Maybe your parents are watching the news more. Maybe they’re talking in low voices at dinner. Maybe they look more stressed, or snap faster than usual. Maybe they’re fighting about money. That’s not your fault — but it can still be really scary.

It’s overwhelming to see adults — the people you count on — feel nervous, confused, or upset. You might hear words like “recession,” “tariffs,” or “trade war” and not know what they mean. That’s totally okay. A lot of adults don’t really understand it either — and some of the people in charge are still figuring it out as they go.

What matters is this: it’s okay to feel unsure. It’s okay to ask questions. And it’s okay to feel a little scared when big things are happening.

Right now, many people — not just your family — are feeling the same way. Business owners are worried. Teachers are unsure. Parents are trying to stay strong. And kids like you are watching and wondering, “What’s going on?”

That’s why this guide exists — to help you understand what’s happening, why it matters, and what kinds of questions you can ask to feel more confident, informed, and safe.

Because even when the news is bad, knowledge makes it feel a little less scary.

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⚠️ 29. What Does It Mean to Mislead?

When someone tells you something that’s not true — or hides the truth — and it causes harm, that’s called misleading. Many business owners now say they were misled about how bad this would be.

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30. What Comes Next?

No one knows for sure. The President might back down — or double down. Other countries might ease up — or strike back harder. But everyone’s watching very closely.

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History Repeats & Smart Questions for Curious Kids

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31. Have We Ever Seen Something Like This Before?

Yes — and it didn’t go well.

Back in 1930, the U.S. did something kind of similar. Congress passed a law called the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act. It raised tariffs on over 20,000 goods from other countries. Just like now, the goal was to help American businesses and farmers.

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⚠️ 32. What Happened After That?

Other countries got mad and put tariffs on American stuff, just like they’re doing now. The world started buying and selling less. Businesses failed. Farms closed. The U.S. fell into the Great Depression, the worst economic time in modern history.

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️ 33. Did Tariffs Cause the Great Depression?

That’s a really good question — and the answer is: not exactly, but they sure didn’t help.

Let’s go back in time, about 100 years ago, to the 1930s. That was when the United States went through one of the hardest times in its history, called the Great Depression. People lost their jobs, banks closed, factories shut down, and families didn’t have enough food. It wasn’t just a few bad weeks — it lasted years.

Now, the Great Depression didn’t start because of tariffs alone. There were other problems too — like banks giving out risky loans and people borrowing more than they could pay back. But then, the U.S. government passed a law called the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. It raised tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods.

The idea was to protect American businesses by making foreign stuff more expensive. Sound familiar?

But here’s what actually happened: other countries got angry and added their own tariffs on American goods. So U.S. farmers and businesses couldn’t sell their products overseas anymore. Exports dropped, prices crashed, and people who were already struggling got hit even harder.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, something else was happening in the middle of the country: the Dust Bowl.

The Dust Bowl was a terrible time when giant dust storms swept across the Great Plains — places like Oklahoma, Kansas, and parts of Texas. It happened because of a mix of drought, poor farming practices, and bad luck. Crops couldn’t grow, farms dried up, and families had to pack up and leave their land behind.

So now imagine this:

• The stock market crashes.

• Other countries stop buying your crops.

• The soil turns to dust.

• And your family farm is gone.

That’s what life was like for a lot of Americans in the 1930s. The tariffs didn’t cause the Dust Bowl, but they made it way harder for struggling farmers to survive — because even if they had something to sell, no one wanted to buy it anymore.

That’s why today, a lot of economists — the people who study money, trade, and jobs — say we should be very careful when raising tariffs. They’ve seen what can happen when countries fight over trade during hard times. History shows that it doesn’t always end well.

 

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34. So Why Do Some Presidents Still Use Tariffs?

Because they sound simple. You can say, “We’ll charge other countries more and bring jobs back!” But the real world is more complicated. These moves usually have side effects that hurt more than help.

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35. Has Any Other President Done Something Like This?

President Trump also added tariffs during his first term, between 2017–2021. He started a trade war with China back then too. Some factories grew, but many American jobs were lost and farmers had to get government bailouts to stay open.

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36. What About Other Countries?

Lots of countries have tried this. Brazil. India. Even the United Kingdom in the 1970s. Each time, they hoped to protect their own stuff — but ended up with higher prices, more poverty, or economic crashes.

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37. So What Are We Doing Now That’s Risky?

This new tariff policy hits every country, not just a few. It’s also tied to national emergency powers, which is rare. That means we’re not just changing trade — we’re changing how power works in the government.

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38. What Does Project 2025 Have to Do With This?

Project 2025 is a plan created by people close to the President. It says the government should control more things directly, like trade, education, and even the news. This tariff plan fits that idea — using emergency rules instead of regular laws.

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39. What Will Kids Be Asking Their Parents Right Now?

Here are some really smart questions your kids might ask:

• “Why are prices going up at the store?”

• “What is a trade war, and why are we in one?”

• “Do tariffs really bring back jobs?”

• “If businesses are struggling, does that affect my school or neighborhood?”

• “Has this happened before in history? What happened then?”

• “Is it fair to raise prices for everyone to punish other countries?”

• “What do other countries think about what we’re doing?”

• “Why did the President use emergency powers? Can he always do that?”

• “Will this change who people vote for in the next election?”

• “What can we do to help people who are losing jobs?”

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️ 40. Why Are These Good Questions?

Because they help kids think like reporters, like scientists, and like citizens. You don’t need to be a grown-up to care about your country, your community, or your future.

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41. Can Kids Make a Difference?

Absolutely. You can:

• Talk with your parents about how your family is affected.

• Write letters to your local leaders.

• Ask teachers to talk about trade in class.

• Share facts with your friends — not rumors or guesses.

Understanding big issues like this starts with asking questions and learning the truth, not just listening to what people say on TV or the internet.

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42. What’s the Big Takeaway?

This trade policy wasn’t just a small rule change. It was a huge shift in how America deals with the world. The President said it would help. But right now, it looks like it’s hurting more than helping.

That doesn’t mean we stop caring — it means we look deeper, ask smart questions, and demand better answers.

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Johnson, Ron. “Senate Alarm Bells Ring as Market Tanks.” The New Republic, 6 Apr. 2025.
https://newrepublic.com

Klein, Ezra. “Smoot-Hawley and the Roots of the Great Depression.” Vox, 3 Mar. 2020.
https://www.vox.com

Marks, Howard. “The Risks of Economic Isolationism.” Oaktree Capital Memo, 6 Apr. 2025.
https://www.oaktreecapital.com

Morris, David. “How Big Is One Trillion Dollars?” Exhibit City News, 2022.
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Shaheen, Jeanne. Remarks at Chatila’s Bakery. WMUR-TV, 31 Mar. 2025.
https://www.wmur.com/article/new-hampshire-bakery-tariffs-shaheen033125/64343420

“Stock Market Crash of 2025 Compared to Great Depression.” LiveMint, 6 Apr. 2025.
https://www.livemint.com/market/history-repeats-us-stock-market-plunges-on-china-retaliation-tariffs-a-look-at-biggest-market-crashes-in-past-11743814004991.html

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On Substack also (GTNM). “Lemonade, Tariffs, and a $5 Trillion Crash: Explaining the Trade War to Kids (and Adults).” GTNM Substack, 7 Apr. 2025.
https://gtnm.substack.com/p/lemonade-tariffs-and-a-5-trillion