President Trump’s “America First Policy Directive to the Secretary of State” establishes a foreign policy framework prioritizing U.S. national interests, economic advantages, and security imperatives. This directive instructs the Secretary of State to align all State Department activities with an “America First” agenda, signaling a retreat from multilateral commitments and a stronger focus on bilateral negotiations benefiting the U.S. The order underscores a pivot to prioritizing American sovereignty, domestic prosperity, and national security over global cooperation.
Key Themes and Implications
- Nationalism in Foreign Policy: The directive reflects a nationalist approach, emphasizing transactional diplomacy and strategic unilateralism over broader international collaboration. This could lead to strained relationships with allies and reduced influence in global institutions.
- Shift in Diplomatic Focus: Efforts may shift from supporting global humanitarian efforts and climate initiatives to advancing U.S. trade, energy independence, and border security objectives.
- Personnel and Programmatic Changes: Guidance issued under this directive will likely include reductions in funding for international aid, reassignment of diplomatic resources, and a focus on programs deemed critical to American economic and security interests.
Relationship to Project 2025
The “America First” foreign policy directly aligns with the overarching goals of Project 2025, which seeks to reorient U.S. governance toward nationalism, sovereignty, and economic prioritization. The policy reflects an effort to centralize decision-making, streamline federal agencies to avoid perceived “wasteful globalism,” and assert dominance in bilateral negotiations.
Predicted Outcomes
Domestic Reactions
- Public Response: Public opinion may be polarized. Proponents of “America First” will champion the directive as reclaiming American strength, while critics will decry the isolationist tone and potential abandonment of vulnerable global communities.
- State-Level Impacts: States reliant on industries affected by international trade (e.g., agriculture, technology) may lobby for exceptions or targeted diplomacy to protect local economies.
International Reactions
- Global Relations: Allies may feel alienated as multilateral agreements face reduced support. Nations dependent on U.S. foreign aid or cooperative trade agreements may seek alternative partnerships with China, the EU, or Russia.
- Diplomatic Strain: Organizations like NATO, the UN, and WHO may experience a decrease in American contributions, resulting in weaker multilateral initiatives.
Predictions
| Outcome | Probability | Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Strain on Multilateral Alliances | 85% | The directive’s unilateral focus will likely create friction with allies accustomed to cooperative agreements. |
| Reduction in Foreign Aid | 90% | An America-centric policy will deprioritize funding for international development and humanitarian projects. |
| Trade Conflicts | 70% | Prioritizing American interests may lead to retaliatory tariffs or strained trade negotiations. |
| Increased Domestic Support for Nationalism | 75% | The directive resonates with nationalist segments of the population, potentially increasing political capital for further policy actions. |
Broader Implications for U.S. Leadership
The directive risks diminishing America’s moral authority and soft power on the global stage, potentially emboldening rival nations to fill the leadership void. The nationalist rhetoric may solidify ideological divides, positioning the U.S. as an unpredictable partner in the global order.
Scenario Integration
In the context of deportations, economic nationalism, and constitutional conflict explored in prior scenarios:
- Economic Impact: Tariffs or renegotiations of trade agreements could exacerbate economic inequalities in states reliant on export-driven industries, escalating tensions between federal and state governments.
- Immigration Policy: The directive may justify stricter border security and immigration rules under the guise of national security.
- Global Reaction to Deportations: Nations receiving deported individuals may respond with diplomatic backlash, complicating trade and security cooperation.
Text of the policy as presented on whitehouse.gov on 01-21-2025
AMERICA FIRST POLICY DIRECTIVE TO THE SECRETARY OF STATE
EXECUTIVE ORDER
January 20, 2025By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered:
Section 1. Purpose. From this day forward, the foreign policy of the United States shall champion core American interests and always put America and American citizens first.
Sec. 2. Policy. As soon as practicable, the Secretary of State shall issue guidance bringing the Department of State’s policies, programs, personnel, and operations in line with an America First foreign policy, which puts America and its interests first.
Sec. 3. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
THE WHITE HOUSE,
January 20, 2025.
