The Prompt

Here is the most recent version of the full prompt to update the scenario based on daily news, rewrite the play-by-play with relevant events, and recalculate probabilities:

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Daily Scenario Monitoring and Update Prompt

Objective:
Track, update, and rewrite the hypothetical scenario involving federal mass deportation efforts, state resistance, and potential constitutional conflict. Ensure all updates are based on recent developments, relevant sources, and recalibrated probabilities.

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Instructions:

1. Headline and Source Scan:
   • Conduct a search for news articles published within the last month covering:
     • Federal immigration policies and enforcement announcements.
     • State-level responses, including legal challenges or resistance measures.
     • Public reactions, such as protests or civil unrest.
     • Appointments, executive orders, or other federal actions impacting the scenario.
     • Economic, international, or societal factors influencing the situation.
   • Use historical sources (older than one month) only if explicitly cited as background context for legal precedents or prior patterns.
2. Play-by-Play Scenario:
   • Organize the response into phases (e.g., Phase 1: Federal Announcement of the Mass Deportation Plan).
   • For each phase:
     • Specify the time period (e.g., Day 1-7, Week 2-4).
     • Detail the actions and reactions of federal, state, and public actors.
     • Include states/entities involved and significant developments.
     • Provide probabilities (in percentages) for key outcomes or actions (e.g., public protests, troop deployments, violent clashes).
3. Scenario Adjustments:
   • Update the timeline with new actions, players, or developments.
   • Reflect escalations, resolutions, or shifts in public opinion or political alignment.
   • Adjust previous probabilities based on recent data.
4. Probabilities and Calculations:
   • Recalculate probabilities for each phase or key outcome using:
     • Historical trends
     • Current reporting
     • Logical extrapolation
   • Clearly justify all percentage changes with supporting evidence from the sources.
5. Transparency and Source Citations:
   • Provide a code block listing all sources used for the update.
     • Include titles, URLs, publication dates, and specify whether a source is historical or current.
     • Exclude unverifiable or irrelevant sources.
6. Final Output Format:
   • Play-by-Play Scenario:
     • Phases broken down by time periods with updated actions, reactions, and probabilities.
   • Potential Outcomes:
     • List potential resolutions or results with recalculated probabilities.
   • Sources in Code Block:
     • Cite all sources clearly for transparency.

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Example Output:

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Phase 1: Federal Announcement of the Mass Deportation Plan

Day 1-7

• Description of federal actions (e.g., executive order for deportations).
• Description of state responses (e.g., immediate lawsuits, protests).

States Likely to Immediately Resist:

• List of states.

Estimated Probabilities:

• Public protests in sanctuary cities: XX%.
• Legal challenges by states: XX%.

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Phase 6: Potential Outcomes

• Outcome A: De-escalation through Political Compromise (Probability: XX%).
• Outcome B: Fragmentation and De Facto State Autonomy (Probability: XX%).
• Outcome C: Prolonged Constitutional Crisis and Martial Law (Probability: XX%).

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