President Trump’s proclamation issued on January 20, 2025, sets forth an unprecedented interpretation of federal and constitutional authority to address immigration and border security. It uses the “invasion” clause of Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution to justify a series of sweeping actions aimed at halting illegal entry into the United States, particularly across the southern border.
This proclamation aligns closely with elements of Project 2025, which prioritizes border security and emphasizes executive authority to enforce immigration laws. It also reflects several key points from our previous scenario predictions, including:
The text as found on Whitehouse.gov 1/21/2025
GUARANTEEING THE STATES PROTECTION AGAINST INVASION
January 20, 2025BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
A PROCLAMATION
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, I hereby proclaim:
An essential feature of any sovereign nation is the existence of territorial boundaries and the inherent authority to decide who and what may cross those boundaries. The Supreme Court of the United States has described this power as a “fundamental act of sovereignty,” which “stems not alone from legislative power but is inherent in the executive power to control the foreign affairs of the nation.” U.S. ex rel. Knauff v. Shaughnessy, 338 U.S. 537, 542 (1950). The Supreme Court has recognized the inherent right and duty of the Executive Branch to defend our national sovereignty, stating that “[w]hen Congress prescribes a procedure concerning the admissibility of aliens, it is not dealing alone with a legislative power. It is implementing an inherent executive power.” Id.
The Congress has, in establishing “an uniform Rule of Naturalization,” created a complex and comprehensive Federal scheme in the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1101 et seq., to control the entry and exit of people and goods across the borders of the United States. In routine circumstances, this complex and comprehensive scheme can protect the national sovereignty of the United States by facilitating the admission of individuals whose presence serves the national interest and preventing the admission of those who do not, such as those aliens who pose threats to public health, section 212(a)(1) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(1); safety, section 212(a)(2) (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(2)); and national security, section 212(a)(3) (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(3)). Prospective immigrants who use the visa system are screened for such health, safety, and security concerns while outside of the United States, and are not permitted to enter the United States until they establish that they are eligible to be admitted as a matter of law and should be admitted as a matter of discretion.
But screening under those provisions of the INA can be wholly ineffective in the border environment, where access to necessary information is limited for aliens who have traveled from countries around the world to enter the United States illegally, or when the system is overwhelmed, leading to the unauthorized entry of innumerable illegal aliens into the United States.
Due to significant information gaps , particularly in the border environment , and processing times, Federal officials do not have the ability to verify with certainty the criminal record or national-security risks associated with the illegal entry of every alien at the southern border, as required by section 212(a)(2)-(3) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(2)-(3). Nor do aliens who illegally cross the southern border readily provide comprehensive background information from their home countries to Federal law enforcement officials.
The public safety and national security risks in such an environment are heightened by the presence of, and control of territory by, international cartels and other transnational criminal organizations on the other side of the southern border, as well as terrorists and other malign actors who intend to harm the United States and the American people. And the risks associated with these issues are greatly exacerbated when the number of aliens illegally crossing the southern border increases to levels that prevent actual operational control of the border.
The same is true for public health, where the Federal Government currently lacks an effective operational capability to screen all illegal aliens crossing the southern border for communicable diseases of public-health concern, as required by section 212(a)(1) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(1). Effectively no aliens who illegally enter the United States provide Federal officials at the southern border with their comprehensive health information, as a lawful immigrant would. As a result, innumerable aliens potentially carrying communicable diseases of public health significance illegally cross the southern border and enter communities across the United States.
Over the last 4 years, at least 8 million illegal aliens were encountered along the southern border of the United States, and countless millions more evaded detection and illegally entered the United States. The sheer number of aliens entering the United States has overwhelmed the system and rendered many of the INA’s provisions ineffective, including those previously described that are intended to prevent aliens posing threats to public health, safety, and national security from entering the United States. As a result, millions of aliens who potentially pose significant threats to health, safety, and national security have moved into communities nationwide.
This ongoing influx of illegal aliens across the southern border of the United States has placed significant costs and constraints upon the States, which have collectively spent billions of dollars in providing medical care and related human services, and have spent considerable amounts on increased law enforcement costs associated with the presence of these illegal aliens within their boundaries.
In joining the Union, the States agreed to surrender much of their sovereignty and join the Union in exchange for the Federal Government’s promise in Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, to “protect each of [the States] against Invasion.” I have determined that the current state of the southern border reveals that the Federal Government has failed in fulfilling this obligation to the States and hereby declare that an invasion is ongoing at the southern border, which requires the Federal Government to take measures to fulfill its obligation to the States.
The INA provides the President with certain emergency tools. For example, it states that “[w]henever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.” 8 U.S.C. 1182(f). This statute “exudes deference to the President in every clause.” Trump v. Hawaii, 585 U.S. 667, 684 (2018). Further, the INA renders it unlawful for “any alien to depart from or enter or attempt to depart from or enter the United States except under such reasonable rules, regulations, and orders, and subject to such limitations and exceptions as the President may prescribe.” 8 U.S.C. 1185(a)(1).
Historically, Presidents have used these statutory authorities to deny entry of designated classes and categories of aliens into the United States through ports of entry. But if the President has the power to deny entry of any alien into the United States, and to impose any restrictions as he may deem appropriate, this authority necessarily includes the right to deny the physical entry of aliens into the United States and impose restrictions on access to portions of the immigration system, particularly when the number of aliens illegally crossing the southern border prevents the Federal Government from obtaining operational control of the border.
The INA does not, however, occupy the Federal Government’s field of authority to protect the sovereignty of the United States, particularly in times of emergency when entire provisions of the INA are rendered ineffective by operational constraints, such as when there is an ongoing invasion into the States. The President’s inherent powers to control the borders of the United States, including those deriving from his authority to control the foreign affairs of the United States, necessarily include the ability to prevent the physical entry of aliens involved in an invasion into the United States, and to rapidly repatriate them to an alternative location. Only through such measures can the President guarantee the right of each State to be protected against invasion.
By the power vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, I have determined that the current situation at the southern border qualifies as an invasion under Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution of the United States. Accordingly, I am issuing this Proclamation based on my express and inherent powers in Article II of the Constitution of the United States, and in faithful execution of the immigration laws passed by the Congress, and suspending the physical entry of aliens involved in an invasion into the United States across the southern border until I determine that the invasion has concluded.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby direct as follows:
Section 1. Suspension of Entry. I hereby proclaim, pursuant to sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), that the entry into the United States on or after the date of this order of aliens engaged in the invasion across the southern border is detrimental to the interests of the United States. I therefore direct that entry into the United States of such aliens be suspended until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 2. Imposition of Restrictions on Entry for Aliens Invading the United States. I hereby proclaim, pursuant to sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), that aliens engaged in the invasion across the southern border of the United States on or after the date of this proclamation are restricted from invoking provisions of the INA that would permit their continued presence in the United States, including, but not limited to, section 208 of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1158, until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 3. Suspension of and Restriction on Entry for Aliens Posing Public Health, Safety, or National Security Risks. I hereby proclaim, pursuant to sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), that the entry into the United States, on or after the date of this order, of any alien who fails, before entering the United States, to provide Federal officials with sufficient medical information and reliable criminal history and background information as to enable fulfillment of the requirements of sections 212(a)(1)-(3) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(1)-(3), is detrimental to the interests of the United States. I therefore direct that entry into the United States of such aliens be suspended and restrict their access to provisions of the INA that would permit their continued presence in the United States, including, but not limited to, section 208 of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1158.
Sec. 4. Constitutional Suspension of Physical Entry. Under the authorities provided to me under Article II of the Constitution of the United States, including my control over foreign affairs, and to effectuate the guarantee of protection against invasion required by Article IV, Section 4, I hereby suspend the physical entry of any alien engaged in the invasion across the southern border of the United States, and direct the Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Attorney General, to take appropriate actions as may be necessary to achieve the objectives of this proclamation, until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 5. Operational Actions to Repel the Invasion. The Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Attorney General, shall take all appropriate action to repel, repatriate, or remove any alien engaged in the invasion across the southern border of the United States on or after the date of this order, whether as an exercise of the suspension power in section 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), or as an exercise of my delegated authority under the Constitution of the United States, until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 6. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This proclamation shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This proclamation is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twentieth day of January, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-five, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-ninth
The proclamation “Guaranteeing the States Protection Against Invasion” fundamentally shifts the landscape of our scenario. It establishes a direct use of executive authority to bypass traditional immigration processes, framing the southern border situation as a constitutional crisis of sovereignty. Here’s how this development influences our timeline and scenario outcomes:
Probability Adjustments:
Probability Adjustments:
Probability Adjustments:
President Trump’s proclamation issued on January 20, 2025, sets forth an unprecedented interpretation of federal and constitutional authority to address immigration and border security. It uses the “invasion” clause of Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution to justify a series of sweeping actions aimed at halting illegal entry into the United States, particularly across the southern border.
This proclamation aligns closely with elements of Project 2025, which prioritizes border security and emphasizes executive authority to enforce immigration laws. It also reflects several key points from our previous scenario predictions, including:
The text as found on Whitehouse.gov 1/21/2025
GUARANTEEING THE STATES PROTECTION AGAINST INVASION
January 20, 2025BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
A PROCLAMATION
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, I hereby proclaim:
An essential feature of any sovereign nation is the existence of territorial boundaries and the inherent authority to decide who and what may cross those boundaries. The Supreme Court of the United States has described this power as a “fundamental act of sovereignty,” which “stems not alone from legislative power but is inherent in the executive power to control the foreign affairs of the nation.” U.S. ex rel. Knauff v. Shaughnessy, 338 U.S. 537, 542 (1950). The Supreme Court has recognized the inherent right and duty of the Executive Branch to defend our national sovereignty, stating that “[w]hen Congress prescribes a procedure concerning the admissibility of aliens, it is not dealing alone with a legislative power. It is implementing an inherent executive power.” Id.
The Congress has, in establishing “an uniform Rule of Naturalization,” created a complex and comprehensive Federal scheme in the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), 8 U.S.C. 1101 et seq., to control the entry and exit of people and goods across the borders of the United States. In routine circumstances, this complex and comprehensive scheme can protect the national sovereignty of the United States by facilitating the admission of individuals whose presence serves the national interest and preventing the admission of those who do not, such as those aliens who pose threats to public health, section 212(a)(1) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(1); safety, section 212(a)(2) (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(2)); and national security, section 212(a)(3) (8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(3)). Prospective immigrants who use the visa system are screened for such health, safety, and security concerns while outside of the United States, and are not permitted to enter the United States until they establish that they are eligible to be admitted as a matter of law and should be admitted as a matter of discretion.
But screening under those provisions of the INA can be wholly ineffective in the border environment, where access to necessary information is limited for aliens who have traveled from countries around the world to enter the United States illegally, or when the system is overwhelmed, leading to the unauthorized entry of innumerable illegal aliens into the United States.
Due to significant information gaps , particularly in the border environment , and processing times, Federal officials do not have the ability to verify with certainty the criminal record or national-security risks associated with the illegal entry of every alien at the southern border, as required by section 212(a)(2)-(3) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(2)-(3). Nor do aliens who illegally cross the southern border readily provide comprehensive background information from their home countries to Federal law enforcement officials.
The public safety and national security risks in such an environment are heightened by the presence of, and control of territory by, international cartels and other transnational criminal organizations on the other side of the southern border, as well as terrorists and other malign actors who intend to harm the United States and the American people. And the risks associated with these issues are greatly exacerbated when the number of aliens illegally crossing the southern border increases to levels that prevent actual operational control of the border.
The same is true for public health, where the Federal Government currently lacks an effective operational capability to screen all illegal aliens crossing the southern border for communicable diseases of public-health concern, as required by section 212(a)(1) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(1). Effectively no aliens who illegally enter the United States provide Federal officials at the southern border with their comprehensive health information, as a lawful immigrant would. As a result, innumerable aliens potentially carrying communicable diseases of public health significance illegally cross the southern border and enter communities across the United States.
Over the last 4 years, at least 8 million illegal aliens were encountered along the southern border of the United States, and countless millions more evaded detection and illegally entered the United States. The sheer number of aliens entering the United States has overwhelmed the system and rendered many of the INA’s provisions ineffective, including those previously described that are intended to prevent aliens posing threats to public health, safety, and national security from entering the United States. As a result, millions of aliens who potentially pose significant threats to health, safety, and national security have moved into communities nationwide.
This ongoing influx of illegal aliens across the southern border of the United States has placed significant costs and constraints upon the States, which have collectively spent billions of dollars in providing medical care and related human services, and have spent considerable amounts on increased law enforcement costs associated with the presence of these illegal aliens within their boundaries.
In joining the Union, the States agreed to surrender much of their sovereignty and join the Union in exchange for the Federal Government’s promise in Article IV, Section 4 of the U.S. Constitution, to “protect each of [the States] against Invasion.” I have determined that the current state of the southern border reveals that the Federal Government has failed in fulfilling this obligation to the States and hereby declare that an invasion is ongoing at the southern border, which requires the Federal Government to take measures to fulfill its obligation to the States.
The INA provides the President with certain emergency tools. For example, it states that “[w]henever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.” 8 U.S.C. 1182(f). This statute “exudes deference to the President in every clause.” Trump v. Hawaii, 585 U.S. 667, 684 (2018). Further, the INA renders it unlawful for “any alien to depart from or enter or attempt to depart from or enter the United States except under such reasonable rules, regulations, and orders, and subject to such limitations and exceptions as the President may prescribe.” 8 U.S.C. 1185(a)(1).
Historically, Presidents have used these statutory authorities to deny entry of designated classes and categories of aliens into the United States through ports of entry. But if the President has the power to deny entry of any alien into the United States, and to impose any restrictions as he may deem appropriate, this authority necessarily includes the right to deny the physical entry of aliens into the United States and impose restrictions on access to portions of the immigration system, particularly when the number of aliens illegally crossing the southern border prevents the Federal Government from obtaining operational control of the border.
The INA does not, however, occupy the Federal Government’s field of authority to protect the sovereignty of the United States, particularly in times of emergency when entire provisions of the INA are rendered ineffective by operational constraints, such as when there is an ongoing invasion into the States. The President’s inherent powers to control the borders of the United States, including those deriving from his authority to control the foreign affairs of the United States, necessarily include the ability to prevent the physical entry of aliens involved in an invasion into the United States, and to rapidly repatriate them to an alternative location. Only through such measures can the President guarantee the right of each State to be protected against invasion.
By the power vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States, I have determined that the current situation at the southern border qualifies as an invasion under Article IV, Section 4 of the Constitution of the United States. Accordingly, I am issuing this Proclamation based on my express and inherent powers in Article II of the Constitution of the United States, and in faithful execution of the immigration laws passed by the Congress, and suspending the physical entry of aliens involved in an invasion into the United States across the southern border until I determine that the invasion has concluded.
NOW, THEREFORE, I, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), and section 301 of title 3, United States Code, hereby direct as follows:
Section 1. Suspension of Entry. I hereby proclaim, pursuant to sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), that the entry into the United States on or after the date of this order of aliens engaged in the invasion across the southern border is detrimental to the interests of the United States. I therefore direct that entry into the United States of such aliens be suspended until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 2. Imposition of Restrictions on Entry for Aliens Invading the United States. I hereby proclaim, pursuant to sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), that aliens engaged in the invasion across the southern border of the United States on or after the date of this proclamation are restricted from invoking provisions of the INA that would permit their continued presence in the United States, including, but not limited to, section 208 of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1158, until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 3. Suspension of and Restriction on Entry for Aliens Posing Public Health, Safety, or National Security Risks. I hereby proclaim, pursuant to sections 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), that the entry into the United States, on or after the date of this order, of any alien who fails, before entering the United States, to provide Federal officials with sufficient medical information and reliable criminal history and background information as to enable fulfillment of the requirements of sections 212(a)(1)-(3) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(a)(1)-(3), is detrimental to the interests of the United States. I therefore direct that entry into the United States of such aliens be suspended and restrict their access to provisions of the INA that would permit their continued presence in the United States, including, but not limited to, section 208 of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1158.
Sec. 4. Constitutional Suspension of Physical Entry. Under the authorities provided to me under Article II of the Constitution of the United States, including my control over foreign affairs, and to effectuate the guarantee of protection against invasion required by Article IV, Section 4, I hereby suspend the physical entry of any alien engaged in the invasion across the southern border of the United States, and direct the Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Attorney General, to take appropriate actions as may be necessary to achieve the objectives of this proclamation, until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 5. Operational Actions to Repel the Invasion. The Secretary of Homeland Security, in coordination with the Secretary of State and the Attorney General, shall take all appropriate action to repel, repatriate, or remove any alien engaged in the invasion across the southern border of the United States on or after the date of this order, whether as an exercise of the suspension power in section 212(f) and 215(a) of the INA, 8 U.S.C. 1182(f) and 1185(a), or as an exercise of my delegated authority under the Constitution of the United States, until I issue a finding that the invasion at the southern border has ceased.
Sec. 6. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this proclamation shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department or agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This proclamation shall be implemented consistent with applicable law and subject to the availability of appropriations.
(c) This proclamation is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twentieth day of January, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-five, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-ninth
The proclamation “Guaranteeing the States Protection Against Invasion” fundamentally shifts the landscape of our scenario. It establishes a direct use of executive authority to bypass traditional immigration processes, framing the southern border situation as a constitutional crisis of sovereignty. Here’s how this development influences our timeline and scenario outcomes:
Probability Adjustments:
Probability Adjustments:
Probability Adjustments:
Generating Transparency Navigating Models analyzes federal policies and news forecasting impacts on society and governance. We expose risks, promote transparency, and empower public understanding through data-driven insights and critical evaluation.
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