The GTMN AI Model follow up of “Asking A.I. to Predict the Future of American Democracy” by Proud Navy Veteran

Foreword

First, I want to say with my whole heart that I hope the predictions below never come to fruition.

For 250 years, America—the idea of America—has given hope to many that building one’s own dream is possible. Yet, despite this ideal, the nation was built on stolen land and the backs of enslaved people. In its modern era, many had hoped America would continue developing its civility, moving past the horrors of its past and aligning itself with the progress seen in Europe and other, older nations.

However, over the last 11 years, we have witnessed a dramatic shift in the core values of America and its people. Perhaps social media and the internet have accelerated this change. Or perhaps the actions of a few in power—set in motion since the Reagan administration—have long been working toward the reality we now face.

Regardless of how we got here, here we are. The article below explores some deeply concerning realities. It is based on data collected and analyzed against real-world trends. As much as I wish this were fiction, it is not—it is fact-based.

Let us hope that these currently hypothetical predictions remain just that—hypothetical.

This is a long article—perhaps the longest we have written since starting this project. You can read it in its entirety on our website and Substack. You can print it out and take it in small doses, or you can consume the entire terrifying piece all at once. However you choose to engage with it, remember this: it does not have to be this way.

Lastly, before we begin, I want to give credit where credit is due. I first came across an article by Proud Navy Veteran on Substack, titled Asking A.I. to Predict the Future of American Democracy. You can—and should—click here to read it.

Introduction and Summary of the article: The Future of American Democracy in the Balance

This article is a follow-up to Asking A.I. to Predict the Future of American Democracy by Proud Navy Veteran, expanding on the original predictions with data-driven analysis using the GTNM AI Model. It is a sobering, deeply researched exploration of the United States’ trajectory based on historical patterns of democratic decline, institutional resilience, and authoritarian threats.

Through a rigorous examination of political trends, judicial shifts, economic factors, and public engagement, this piece asks the fundamental question: Will American democracy survive the next two decades? And if not, when and how will it fall?

We explore key aspects shaping the nation’s future:

• Institutional Resilience – Can the courts, Congress, and federal agencies withstand authoritarian pressures?
• Authoritarian Threats – What strategies are actively eroding democratic norms?
• Public Engagement – Can civic resistance prevent collapse, or will mass suppression take hold?
• Historical Precedents – What lessons from past democratic failures apply to the U.S. today?

The findings are unsettling. Based on the AI’s predictions, democracy in America may face a point of no return by the 2028 presidential election. If current trends hold, the country could experience full authoritarian consolidation by 2030-2032. The article also delves into potential responses from citizens—whether peaceful resistance, economic independence, or, in the most extreme case, armed conflict.

This is a long and difficult read, but an important one. It presents a possible future that we must understand to prevent. The road ahead is not set in stone—there is still time to act. However, the next five years will determine the fate of American democracy.

Table of Contents

Foreword

• A Personal Note: Hoping These Predictions Never Come True
• The Importance of Fact-Based Analysis
• Acknowledgment of Proud Navy Veteran’s Work

Introduction: The Crossroads of American Democracy

• The Decline of Democratic Institutions
• Why This Analysis Matters
• How the GTNM AI Model Was Used

The Big Question: Will American Democracy Survive Until 2045?

• Key Factors in Democratic Survival
• Historical Patterns of Democratic Decline
• Predicting the Future Based on Data

Institutional Resilience: Can Democracy Withstand Authoritarianism?

• The Judiciary: Supreme Court & Federal Courts
• Congress & State Governments: The Legislative Struggle
• The Electoral System: Can Free & Fair Elections Survive?
• Federal Agencies: DOJ, FBI, Military & Civil Service

The Rise of Authoritarian Threats

• The America First Investment Policy
• Military Purges & Political Realignments
• Project 2025: Federal Bureaucracy Takeover
• Historical Precedents of Authoritarian Transitions

Public Engagement & Resistance: Will the People Fight Back?

• Blue State Resistance & Legislative Countermeasures
• Youth Activism & Grassroots Movements
• The Criminalization of Protests & Civil Disobedience
• Historical Case Studies in Resistance

The Role of Corporations & Economic Influence

• How Big Business Can Enable or Resist Authoritarianism
• Industries Most Likely to Align with an Authoritarian State
• Economic Warfare: Controlling Supply Chains & Financial Systems
• Case Studies: Nazi Germany, Chile Under Pinochet, Russia Under Putin

Final Probability Estimates: The Likelihood of Democratic Collapse

• Key Milestones in Democratic Erosion
• Best-Case vs. Worst-Case Scenarios
• The Role of International Pressure

What Should Citizens Do to Prepare for Authoritarian Rule?

• Protecting Civil Liberties & Digital Privacy
• Economic & Financial Independence Strategies
• Building Local Networks & Community Resilience
• Strengthening Personal Security & Emergency Preparedness
• Engaging in Strategic Resistance Without Immediate Risk

Predicting the End of American Democracy: A Timeline Analysis

• The Historical Timeframes of Democratic Collapse
• Where the U.S. Stands in the Decline Cycle
• The Estimated Date When Democracy May End
• Factors That Could Accelerate or Delay the Process

The Fork in the Road: Could a Second American Civil War Happen?

• The Conditions Needed for Civil War to Begin
• The Role of the Military & Law Enforcement
• Political & Geographic Divisions: Blue States vs. Red States
• International Recognition & Foreign Involvement

The Timeline for a Second American Civil War: How It Would Begin

• Phase 1: The Trigger Event (2026-2028)
• Phase 2: Political & Economic Secession (2028-2029)
• Phase 3: The First Armed Confrontations (2029-2030)
• Phase 4: Full-Scale Civil War (2030-2032)
• The Potential Use of Nuclear & Biological Weapons

Conclusion: The Next Five Years Will Decide America’s Fate

• The Final Window for Democratic Resistance
• If Democracy Falls, Will It Ever Return?
• The Role of Individual Action in Shaping the Future

Appendix & Further Reading

• References & Source Data
• Suggested Actions for Activists, Journalists & Concerned Citizens
• Recommended Readings on Democratic Decline & Resistance

AI Transparency Statement

• The Role of AI in Writing This Analysis
• The Importance of Fact-Checking & Human Oversight
• Acknowledgment of the Role of AI in Research

I wanted to take our GTNM model and ask our AI the same questions that Proud Navy Veteran asked his chatbot. We’ve been building this model since November, feeding it a substantial amount of factual source data and developing robust APIs to search databases and sources. All of this is designed to improve accuracy, ensure a stronger fact-based approach, and eliminate hallucinations and creative narratives.

Using this collective data and our normal format, I wanted to see how my model’s predictions compare to the one used by Proud Navy Veteran.

This is how that went.

Prompt: Considering all factors involved Based on the past 20 years of political developments in the United States—along with historical patterns of democratic decline worldwide—what are the realistic chances that American democracy will survive in its current form over the next two decades? Consider institutional resilience, authoritarian threats, public engagement, and historical precedent in your analysis.

The Crossroads of American Democracy

Over the past two decades, the United States has experienced significant democratic backsliding, with institutional erosion, the rise of authoritarian politics, and the weakening of public trust in democratic governance. Given these trends, the question is no longer if democracy in America is under threat, but rather how much longer it can survive in its current form.

By examining:

1. Institutional Resilience (Are American institutions strong enough to withstand authoritarian shifts?)
2. Authoritarian Threats (What strategies are in place to erode democracy?)
3. Public Engagement & Resistance (Can civil society prevent democratic collapse?)
4. Historical Precedent (What does history suggest about America’s trajectory?)

We can make a data-driven prediction about the likelihood of American democracy surviving intact by 2045. Given recent developments—including Trump’s “America First Investment Policy” and his sweeping purge of the military leadership—this analysis will integrate the latest policy shifts to refine our projection.

1. Institutional Resilience: Can Democracy Withstand Authoritarian Pressures?

For democracy to survive, its institutions must hold the line against power grabs, election interference, and legal manipulation. The key institutions that determine democratic survival are:

• The Judiciary (Courts & Supreme Court)
• The Legislative Branch (Congress & State Governments)
• The Electoral System (Voting Protections & Election Integrity)
• Federal Agencies (DOJ, FBI, Military & Civil Service)

Judiciary: Supreme Court & Federal Courts

Judicial Capture: Over the past two decades, the Supreme Court has shifted significantly toward partisan decision-making, favoring expanded executive power and weakening voting rights protections (e.g., Shelby v. Holder, 2013).
Legal Doctrine Favoring Executive Authority: Trump-appointed judges have upheld legal arguments that expand presidential immunity and limit federal oversight over states.
Threat of Emergency Rule & Court Expansion: If Republicans gain permanent control of the judiciary, executive power could be expanded indefinitely, allowing authoritarian policies to go unchallenged.

Historical Precedent:
➡ Hungary (2010-Present): Viktor Orbán’s government stacked the courts with loyalists, removing judicial oversight over elections and policy.
➡ Weimar Germany (1919-1933): The Nazi regime used legal mechanisms to dismantle democracy, claiming legal legitimacy while neutralizing the opposition.

Institutional Survival Likelihood by 2045: 40-50%
Judicial independence is weakening but not yet fully dismantled. However, without intervention, the courts could become fully partisan tools of the executive branch by the 2030s.

Legislative Branch: Congress & State Governments

Congressional Gridlock & Minority Rule: Due to gerrymandering and filibuster rules, a minority party can retain power indefinitely.
Rise of State-Level Authoritarianism: Republican-controlled states are enacting voter suppression laws and overriding local governments, setting a precedent for federal overreach.
Project 2025: Federal Bureaucracy Purge: This proposal would replace tens of thousands of career civil servants with loyalists, eliminating institutional resistance to executive control.

Historical Precedent:
➡ Turkey (2002-Present): Erdoğan’s AKP government weakened legislative checks by centralizing power and limiting opposition participation.
➡ Poland (2015-Present): The ruling PiS party undermined judicial and electoral independence, ensuring perpetual control through legislative manipulation.

Institutional Survival Likelihood by 2045: 30-40%
The legislative branch is becoming increasingly dysfunctional and may become a rubber-stamp institution under a fully authoritarian executive.

Electoral System: Can Free & Fair Elections Survive?

Voter Suppression Tactics Increasing: Many GOP-controlled states are passing laws restricting ballot access, disproportionately affecting minority and young voters.
State Legislatures Taking Over Election Certification: Republican-led states are granting themselves the power to reject election results, which could allow for fraudulent outcomes in 2028 and beyond.
Rise of Election Denialism: 2020 election denialism has normalized the belief that elections are rigged, making future disputes more dangerous.

Historical Precedent:
➡ Russia (1999-Present): Putin kept elections in place but rigged them through disqualification of opponents and state-controlled voting mechanisms.
➡ Venezuela (1999-Present): Chávez and Maduro weaponized election commissions to ensure predetermined outcomes.

Institutional Survival Likelihood by 2045: 20-35%
Without legal protections, elections will likely remain performative rather than competitive by the 2030s.

The Role of Corporations & Economic Influence in an Authoritarian Shift

In historical authoritarian takeovers, corporations and financial elites either resist the regime, remain neutral, or actively support it. In the U.S., the role of big business, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley will be critical in determining the speed and effectiveness of an authoritarian transition or resistance movement.

How Corporations Could Enable or Resist Authoritarianism

Industries Most Likely to Support vs. Resist

✅ Industries Likely to Resist

• Big Tech (Google, Apple, Meta) → These companies rely on international markets and democratic institutions.
• Wall Street Firms (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs) → If global sanctions are placed on the U.S., they may resist authoritarian rule.
• Entertainment Industry (Hollywood, Publishing, News Media) → Historically opposed to authoritarianism due to its reliance on free speech.

❌ Industries Likely to Support Authoritarianism

• Defense Contractors (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman) → Historically benefit from authoritarian militarization.
• Big Oil & Energy (ExxonMobil, Chevron) → May support the regime in exchange for deregulation.
• Private Security Firms (Academi, formerly Blackwater) → Could provide paramilitary forces for the regime.

Historical Parallel

Nazi Germany (1930s-1940s) – Corporations like IBM, Ford, and Bayer actively assisted the Nazi regime in exchange for economic privileges.
Chile (1973-1990) – U.S. companies like ITT Corporation helped fund Pinochet’s coup, showing that economic elites can be complicit in authoritarianism.

➡ Conclusion: The private sector could either slow or accelerate authoritarian control. The key will be whether corporate interests align more with maintaining democratic institutions or profiting from authoritarian expansion.

2. The Rise of Authoritarian Threats: How Democracy Dies

The key authoritarian trends in the U.S. today include:

America First Investment Policy (2025) → This economic nationalism policy prioritizes selective foreign investment while removing regulatory oversight for politically aligned corporations, setting a precedent for state-controlled capitalism.
Trump’s Purge of the Military Leadership (2025) → By firing the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (Gen. CQ Brown) and others, Trump is reshaping the Pentagon to ensure military loyalty to the executive branch.
Project 2025: Total Bureaucratic Takeover → This plan replaces career civil servants with political loyalists, effectively eliminating neutrality in federal agencies.

Historical Precedent:
➡ Germany (1933-1934): Hitler purged military leadership and civil service institutions, securing total control over state functions.
➡ Hungary (2010-Present): Orbán politicized bureaucracy and courts, making opposition governance nearly impossible.

Probability of Authoritarian Consolidation by 2045: 60-75%

3. Public Engagement & Resistance: Will the People Fight Back?

Public engagement is the last line of defense against authoritarianism, but resistance is being criminalized.

✅ Blue States Are Resisting Federal Overreach → States like California and New York are passing counter-legislation to protect democracy.
✅ Youth & Activist Mobilization → Gen Z and Millennials are the most pro-democracy generations in decades.
❌ Protests Are Being Criminalized → Many GOP-led states are passing laws restricting mass protests, discouraging public dissent.

Historical Precedent:
➡ South Korea (1961-1987): Dictatorship ended due to mass mobilization and civil disobedience.
➡ Chile (1973-1990): Resistance to Pinochet’s rule took nearly two decades before a democratic transition was possible.

Probability of Public Resistance Successfully Reversing Authoritarianism: 35-50%

Probability of Public Resistance Successfully Reversing Authoritarianism: 35-50%

4. Final Probability Estimates: Will Democracy Survive Until 2045?

Conclusion: The Next Five Years Are Critical

➡ Without immediate intervention, democracy could be functionally over by 2030-2035.
➡ The U.S. is following the same authoritarian path as Hungary, Turkey, and Russia.
➡ If public resistance & institutional reforms fail, full autocracy could emerge by the late 2030s.

The survival of democracy depends on what happens between now and 2028.

Next I also asked it I asked this follow-up question:

Okay, given your predictions that American Democracy has less than a 50% chance of survival . . . What should each individual citizen do to prepare for a coming authoritarian state?

Surviving Authoritarian Rule: A Citizen’s Guide to the Next Two Decades

Given the 60-70% probability that the United States will transition into a hybrid-authoritarian state or full autocracy by 2045, individual citizens must prepare for a drastically altered political and social environment. If democratic institutions fail, life in America will change significantly—potentially including restrictions on civil liberties, mass surveillance, politically motivated arrests, and economic instability.

To survive and resist in an authoritarian state, citizens must focus on five key areas:

1. Protecting Civil Liberties & Digital Privacy
2. Achieving Economic & Financial Independence
3. Building Strong Local Networks & Community Resilience
4. Strengthening Personal Security & Emergency Preparedness
5. Engaging in Strategic Resistance Without Immediate Risk

1. Protecting Civil Liberties & Digital Privacy

One of the first steps authoritarian regimes take is limiting free speech, monitoring dissent, and criminalizing opposition. Surveillance and data collection will become more widespread, meaning that personal privacy will be at risk.

Immediate Actions to Take:

✅ Use Secure Communication Apps → Switch to Signal, ProtonMail, and encrypted VPNs to protect conversations from state surveillance.
✅ Scrub Personal Social Media → Delete past posts that could flag you as a dissenter; create a low-profile online presence.
✅ Know Your Rights → Learn how to legally refuse searches, avoid self-incrimination, and what to do if arrested for political activism.
✅ Avoid Government-Issued Digital IDs → Many authoritarian states use digital tracking systems to monitor citizen activity.

Historical Example:
China’s Social Credit System – The Chinese government uses mass surveillance and AI to track and punish dissenters. Americans should assume similar tracking may emerge.

Long-Term Strategies:

• Learn to use cash & decentralized currencies (crypto, barter, local trading) to reduce digital financial tracking.
• Set up anonymous email addresses & secondary phone numbers for activism or organizing efforts.

2. Achieving Economic & Financial Independence

Authoritarian regimes often weaponize the economy against dissenters. The government may freeze bank accounts, seize property, or restrict access to financial institutions for political reasons.

Immediate Actions to Take:

✅ Diversify Your Income Streams → Start side hustles, freelancing, or remote work to reduce reliance on a politically controlled job market.
✅ Convert Savings to Secure Assets → Move a portion of your savings into gold, cryptocurrency, or hard assets that the government cannot easily confiscate.
✅ Keep Cash Reserves → Have at least three to six months’ worth of physical cash and tradeable goods.

Historical Example:
Russia (2000-Present) – Opposition figures have had their bank accounts frozen and their ability to work legally restricted by the government.

Long-Term Strategies:

• Learn barter & underground economy skills to survive if the government targets financial transactions.
• Consider foreign investment accounts or assets outside the U.S. as a hedge against economic instability.

3. Building Strong Local Networks & Community Resilience

In authoritarian states, individual survival is difficult—organized communities have a better chance. Creating strong local alliances can provide protection, food security, and mutual aid.

Immediate Actions to Take:

✅ Identify Trusted Allies → Form small, close-knit networks of people who share your values and will help each other in a crisis.
✅ Participate in Local Mutual Aid Groups → These groups offer food, supplies, and protection in case of economic collapse or martial law.
✅ Develop Useful Skills → Learn gardening, first aid, mechanical repair, and other essential survival skills.

Historical Example:
Weimar Germany (1920s-1930s) – Anti-Nazi resistance groups relied on secret networks to help hide political targets and move resources.

Long-Term Strategies:

• Avoid centralized online networks (Facebook, Twitter) and instead use secure private forums for organizing.
• Work on local food security (community gardens, farmers markets, seed banks) to reduce dependence on government-controlled supply chains.

4. Strengthening Personal Security & Emergency Preparedness

Authoritarian regimes enforce compliance through force, using military, police, and private paramilitary groups. Individuals must be prepared for increased risks to personal safety.

Immediate Actions to Take:

✅ Create an Emergency Plan → Know where to go and who to call if targeted by authorities.
✅ Develop Situational Awareness → Learn how to identify surveillance, avoid confrontations, and move unnoticed.
✅ Stockpile Essentials → Maintain food, water, medical supplies, and energy reserves in case of shortages or government-imposed restrictions.

Historical Example:
Chile Under Pinochet (1973-1990) – Dissidents were arrested, tortured, or disappeared, making escape planning critical.

Long-Term Strategies:

• Consider relocation options → If necessary, identify safe states or foreign nations willing to accept political exiles.
• Learn basic self-defense skills to protect yourself from potential extremist violence or state repression.

5. Engaging in Strategic Resistance Without Immediate Risk

While direct confrontation with an authoritarian state is dangerous, strategic resistance can weaken authoritarian control over time.

Immediate Actions to Take:

✅ Educate Others Privately → Teach family and friends about authoritarian warning signs without drawing attention.
✅ Support Alternative Media & Journalism → Independent journalism is a major target for authoritarian regimes.
✅ Resist Propaganda & Disinformation → Use fact-checking, critical thinking, and VPNs to access global news sources.

Historical Example:
Poland (1980s) – The Solidarity movement used underground printing presses and radio stations to counter state-controlled media.

Long-Term Strategies:

• Learn to use blockchain & decentralized tech to store information safely.
• Use humor & satire to undermine authoritarian figures—a tactic that has historically weakened propaganda efforts.

Summary: How to Prepare for Authoritarian Rule

Final Thought: The Battle for Democracy Isn’t Over

Authoritarianism thrives on fear and submission—but resistance movements have historically overturned dictatorships. The key is to act before repression fully takes hold.

The Next 5 Years Are Critical

• If authoritarianism fully takes hold, survival strategies will be necessary.
• If mass resistance is successful, authoritarian control can be weakened or even overthrown.
• Either way, preparation is key.

Democracy may not survive—but informed, prepared citizens will.

Final Thought: The Battle for Democracy Isn’t Over

Authoritarianism thrives on fear and submission—but resistance movements have historically overturned dictatorships. The key is to act before repression fully takes hold.

The Next 5 Years Are Critical

• If authoritarianism fully takes hold, survival strategies will be necessary.
• If mass resistance is successful, authoritarian control can be weakened or even overthrown.
• Either way, preparation is key.

Democracy may not survive—but informed, prepared citizens will.

So then, I asked the AI the same question that Proud Navy Veteran asked their AI model.

Okay, you outlined the threat and told us what American Citizens should do to prepare. I have just one final question. Based on the historical timeframes, where democracies devolved into authoritarian states, and given the events of the past 10 years in the United States . . . What is your best prediction (estimated date) as to when American Democracy will cease to exist . . . If in fact, that is what ultimately happens?